For years, Christmas Day has been the NBA’s biggest single day on the regular season calendar. The league builds its schedule around putting five marquee matchups on Christmas, and for a long time, they only faced NFL competition when Dec. 25 fell on a Sunday.
However, the NFL has played games on Christmas each of the past four years, and the big ratings they received were too tantalizing to go back to the way things were. After insisting that they wouldn’t put games on Christmas when it lands on a Tuesday or Wednesday, the NFL changed course when Netflix came calling, offering hundreds of millions of dollars to broadcast a pair of NFL Christmas games each of the next three years. That was the NFL officially ending their détente with the NBA over Christmas, and making clear that they weren’t going to cede the holiday back to basketball.
If that wasn’t enough, the NFL decided to run up the score on the NBA over the weekend, announcing late Sunday night that Beyoncé will perform at halftime of the Ravens-Texans game in her hometown of Houston. The one thing the NBA has going for it over the NFL on Christmas is that they are on linear television, with games on ABC and ESPN, while the NFL is on a streamer (albeit the largest one there is). As we have seen with Thursday Night Football and playoff games on Peacock, there is a pretty sizable drop-off in viewership for similar marquee NFL games from linear TV to streaming. However, the way to get more people over there is to give the non-football fans a reason to want to tune-in, and a Beyoncé halftime show is a sure-fire way to add some serious attention.
NBA fans and media have called on the league to fight back and reclaim their place as the Christmas headliner, but the truth is, there’s just nothing to do when the NFL decides to plant its flag. The NBA could put together its absolute best teams and have every star healthy, get Drake and Kendrick Lamar to squash their beef at midcourt during halftime, and they would barely put a dent in the ratings for the worst possible NFL game. Add in the fact that the NFL has a pair of really good games this year — Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans — and there’s just no chance for the NBA to get its corner fully back.
Being able to add a Super Bowl-caliber halftime performer (Beyoncé literally did one back in 2013) to the Christmas slate is just another example of the NFL’s embarrassment of riches. Could the NBA try and do more to add some cultural cache to their Christmas games? Sure, they could look at adding a performer in one of the marquee games, but halftime in NBA games is shorter than in the NFL, limiting the time on a performance (and for a performance set-up). That limits what you can do, and they’re just not going to get someone at the level of Beyoncé in that same spot — it doesn’t hurt the NFL that Beyoncé’s husband, Jay-Z curates the NFL’s Super Bowl halftime shows.
The reality is, the NBA can’t consider the NFL a direct competitor and instead needs to figure out how they can best serve the audience that would pick watching basketball over football. There is nowhere to hide from the NFL at this point. If there is money to be made and ratings to be had, the NFL has made it very clear they will be there to scoop up as much cash and as many eyeballs as they can. The NBA has tried moving off Thursdays until the NFL season ends, and held off on marquee showcase games on weekends until after football — it’s just not worth trying to challenge the NFL’s ratings superiority, particularly when there are nights when the NFL doesn’t air games. The question for the NBA now has to be, will they let their Christmas schedule become the latest casualty?
They still have some advantages in being on ABC and ESPN rather than Netflix, but the NFL moving off TV also makes it harder to benefit from the potential for fans to bounce back-and-forth because that involves the added barrier of exiting one app and opening another. As such, the best way forward isn’t to try and beat the NFL at their own game, as that’s not possible. Instead, the NBA has to keep looking at how to create the best basketball product and present that to their audience, while figuring out how to sustainably build their fan base.
The NFL, put simply, doesn’t have to worry about the same things the NBA does right now. They can send a Giants-Panthers game, featuring two of the worst teams in the league, overseas and sell it out while millions stateside wake up and tune in. They can withstand injuries and star absences and still clean up, as tens of millions of people are going to watch Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito on Thanksgiving, while the NBA faces huge backlash for the same thing.
That’s because football is king in the United States. For as much as people want to come up with a magic fix that will make the NBA suddenly explode in popularity to be alongside the NFL, that just doesn’t exist because they aren’t playing football. As such, all they can do is focus on themselves and figure out what they can do to make the product as appealing as they can, with a focus on those who want to watch basketball. They can still go up against the NFL and do well on Christmas — last year was the least-watched NBA Christmas on record, and it was still their biggest viewership day of the season. The real challenge is how they build their basketball base, because you aren’t going to win a battle for casual eyeballs going up against the NFL, and especially the NFL plus Beyoncé.
As such, the NBA has to ignore the proverbial scoreboard between them and the NFL on Christmas. It’s a fight they will never win, but also, it doesn’t have to be viewed as a fight, even though on Dec. 26, there will inevitably be dozens of posts about how the NFL dusted the NBA in ratings, with a massive peak surely coming around the time of Beyoncé’s performance. But the NBA just can’t worry about that, because the NFL beats everyone and everything in the ratings game.
Instead, they have to keep the focus on the basketball and what they can do to get the best product on the court, all while accepting that the NFL is a ratings behemoth and adjusting expectations accordingly. There isn’t a quick fix that suddenly closes that gap, but one also shouldn’t be seen as necessary from the league’s point of view, because they have an 11-year, $76 billion national TV deal locked in. ESPN will certainly want to explore avenues to boost viewership — that’s their job — but the league should be taking the long view here, and that means ignoring the idea that they should be competing in the same weight class as the NFL and figuring out instead how to entertain basketball fans.
Once the NFL season ends, the NBA still becomes the biggest game in town. It doesn’t pull in football numbers (because, again, nothing does), but the Finals still pull in 10+ million viewers a game even in a down year, and there’s plenty of interest in the playoffs. I’m loathe to agree with arguments that the sky is falling and the NBA is in some terrible position in terms of people not wanting to watch basketball anymore. That said, if they are going to keep an 82-game schedule (which naturally makes each game less intriguing than a 17-game schedule like the NFL has where, every game feels vital to your chances at the playoffs) that starts in football season, they have to figure out how to raise the value of those games for the viewer, and that starts with raising their value to the players.
The NBA Cup is a great example of that, as they’ve gotten the buy-in from the players necessary to give November and December basketball some stakes that it previously lacked, and the result has been really fun basketball. The Christmas Day games also still matter to players, even if they’re no longer in a complete standalone spot on the sports calendar, but the truth is, the NBA has to be even smarter about who they put on the Christmas schedule. They can’t risk a repeat of last year’s Heat-Sixers game without Joel Embiid or Jimmy Butler, which made that the least-watched Christmas game in history, and this year they seem to have learned a lesson, pairing a team whose interest is driven by a single star (the Spurs with Victor Wembanyama) against a legacy franchise (the Knicks) that have a built-in floor for viewership.
I also think the NBA can look at this as an opportunity now to take some swings, knowing the NFL is going to hold casual eyeballs, and give some up-and-coming teams (say, the Thunder) a little bit of shine in hopes of delivering better games. Bank on better basketball to bring people in, rather than just hoping for star power, especially as the generation led by LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant that has always been able to bring in eyeballs ages out. And of course, try to provide a highly-competitive game for your basketball diehards to enjoy, because who knows? If the NFL game is a dud, you might even get people flipping over once Beyoncé steps off the stage.
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